The 2026 State of the Cannabis Industry report

Market conditions shaping cannabis in 2026

The 2026 State of the Cannabis Industry report provides authoritative cannabis industry data and statistics on the economic, policy and financial forces shaping the US cannabis sector. This comprehensive cannabis market analysis draws on operator surveys, proprietary banking data and economic research from First Citizens, revealing how businesses are navigating pricing pressure, regulatory change and uneven access to capital entering the new year.

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$29 billion

Estimated US cannabis sales in 2025, reflecting the industry's first year-over-year revenue decline after more than a decade of growth

87%

Percentage of surveyed cannabis companies that expect positive revenue growth in 2026, up from 66% in 2025

60%

Average share of company capitalization provided by founders, underscoring the industry's continued reliance on self-funding

Pricing pressure is reshaping the market

Widespread oversupply across regulated markets is compressing prices and margins. Even where unit volumes remain stable or increase, pricing continues to constrain revenue growth nationwide.

Graph showing widespread cannabis oversupply across state-regulated markets is compressing wholesale prices and profit margins industry-wide

The chart details how widespread cannabis oversupply across state-regulated markets is compressing wholesale prices and profit margins industrywide.

Notes: (1) Based on legal, authorized and regulated capacity.

Sources: Whitney Economics, state cannabis regulators

Federal policy is a top concern

Federal policy is among the leading factors shaping operator outlooks. Potential regulatory changes are seen as directionally important, although uncertainty around timing and implementation continues to influence planning.

Graph showing federal cannabis policy ranks as the leading external factor shaping operator outlooks for 2026

The chart details which external factors had the biggest impact on surveyed cannabis companies' performances in 2025. It illustrates that federal policy and macro environment are the most important factors, while labor constraints and changes in consumer are less important.

Source: First Citizens Bank 2025 Cannabis Survey

Financial access evolves unevenly

While payment processing and other business banking services have become more accessible for many cannabis-related businesses, access to financing and growth capital remains difficult to obtain for many.

Graph showing cannabis banking access has improved for payment processing and basic banking services

The chart details how easy or difficult it is for cannabis businesses to obtain certain services. It illustrates that payment processing and banking services are easier to access, while capital from private equity, venture capital and banks are the most difficult.

Source: First Citizens Bank 2025 Cannabis Survey

Ryan Palmquest
Senior Vice President, Senior Director of Cannabis Banking
First Citizens Bank

Diana Ronquillo
Senior Vice President, Director of Sales, Cannabis
First Citizens Bank

Beau Whitney
Chief Economist, Whitney Economics

Jake Ledbetter
Senior Researcher, Market Insights
Silicon Valley Bank

Andrew Pardo, CFA
Principal Researcher, Market Insights
Silicon Valley Bank