Making Sense
In Brief | The week ahead for markets and the economy
Fresh Inflation Data | Retail Sales | Earnings Season | Monday, July 14, 2025
Phil: After a relatively quiet week in which the reciprocal tariff deadline was extended to August 1st, we turn to a busy week ahead.
First will be the Consumer Price Index for June on Tuesday. The consensus expects month-on-month inflation to increase from 0.3% from 0.1% in May. This would bring headline annual inflation up to 2.6%.
Core inflation, which excludes the impact of food and energy, would rise to 2.9% Both metrics remain above the Fed's 2% inflation target. In recent months, CPI data has come in below expectations as potential impacts from tariffs have not yet shown in the hard data. Investors and the Fed will be watching this week's report for any material change to the inflation picture.
Also on the inflation front, the less closely watched Producer Price Index comes out on Wednesday, and might give an indication of tariff impacts at the producer level.
On Thursday, June's retail sales report comes out. In May, retail sales fell. The consumer remains in focus, especially after a recent personal spending report showed deteriorating real consumer spending. Economists expect this week's retail sales data to recover, especially after excluding volatile categories like auto sales.
Finally, second quarter earnings season kicks off this week with earnings releases from large banks and several other sectors. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow roughly 5% versus a year prior. We would not be surprised to see earnings results outperform analyst estimates just as they did in the first quarter.
So items to watch this week. One, inflation data. Two, retail sales. Three, earning season.
Authors
Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403
Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964
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