Making Sense: In Brief
The week ahead for markets and the economy
Phil: Last week, markets digested a disappointing GDP report and PCE inflation data that suggested there's still much more work to do on the inflation front.
Turning to the week ahead, what has been so far a positive earnings season chugs along. 80% of companies have reported better-than-expected earnings. However, price reactions have been more mixed, especially for some big names, as investors have reacted strongly to company guidance.
It is a very busy week on the economic front. The ISM manufacturing report comes out on Wednesday. Recall that last month, the index moved above 50, indicating expansion rather than contraction for the first time since late 2022. The corresponding report for ISM services comes out a couple days later on Friday and should show continued strength in the services sector.
Later on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release its statement from its Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and Chairman Powell will hold his press conference at 2:30 pm.
After disappointing inflation data this year, markets will be parsing his every word for any changes in his expectations for the interest rate outlook.
Finally, the employment report for April will be released on Friday morning. Forecasters are looking for another very strong report with payrolls coming in at a solid 250,000 and the unemployment rate likely remaining unchanged at 3.8%.
So items to watch this week. One, earnings season. Two, the ISM indices. Three, the Fed statement and press conference. And four, the April employment report.
Making Sense In Brief Outro Slide
Brent Ciliano
CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart SVP, Director of Market and Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403
Blake Taylor | Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com
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