Making Sense
In Brief | The week ahead for markets and the economy
Earnings Season Continues | How Productive Are We? | Jobless Claims | Monday, August 4, 2025
Phil: Following a busy week of both earnings and economic releases, we turn to the week ahead. It will be another important week for corporate earnings with dozens of S&P 500 companies reporting results. So far, the majority of companies have outperformed fairly contained expectations on both the top and bottom lines.
On Tuesday, the ISM Services Index is released. After dipping into contractionary territory in May, the Index recovered in June and the consensus expects its recovery to continue in this week's data. We will be particularly interested in the employment and prices paid sub-indices for any indication of underlying labor market and inflation trends.
On Thursday, we will have our eyes on second quarter nonfarm productivity data. Productivity is simply a measure of economic output per hour worked. Many market participants expect a recovery in US productivity in coming quarters and years, given the increased use of automation and artificial intelligence. It is still far too early to know the eventual impact, but we will be watching this data more closely than in years past.
Also on Thursday will be weekly jobless claims, which are an important indicator of the underlying health of the labor market. We will be especially focused on continuing jobless claims where we have seen a move higher this year.
So items to watch this week. One, corporate earnings. Two, ISM services. Three, nonfarm productivity. Four, jobless claims.
Authors
Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403
Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964
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