Making Sense: In Brief
The week ahead for markets and the economy
Monday, June 9, 2025
Phil: Last week, markets digested both fresh employment data and more headlines out of Washington.
Turning to the week ahead, the most important economic release will likely be Wednesday's May Consumer Price Index release. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, and investors will be watching this report closely for any early tariff-related impact. Remember, the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision comes next week on the 18th.
Markets are pricing an extremely low chance of any change to the federal funds rate, but does this CPI data make the Fed's job any more difficult? Economists expect the annual pace of core inflation, which excludes the impact of food and energy, to increase slightly to 2.9%.
Also on the inflation front, May producer price index data comes out on Thursday. Producer prices can sometimes give an indication of underlying inflation that might impact future consumer prices and company margins. As with CPI, market participants will watch this data for any signs of tariff-related impact.
Finally, on Friday, June's University of Michigan consumer sentiment report is released. Consumer sentiment has deteriorated this year while consumer inflation expectations have risen. Do we see any improvement in this week's data?
So, items to watch this week: One, CPI. Two, PPI. Three, consumer sentiment.
Authors
Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403
Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964
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