Making Sense
In Brief | The week ahead for markets and the economy
Jobs Data | Fed Meeting Minutes | Tariff Deadline | Monday, July 7, 2025
Phillip: Last week was busy for financial markets as the June employment report showed a resilient labor market, and investors keenly watched Washington for developments on both tax and tariffs. Markets started off the third quarter on a strong footing with stocks at all-time highs.
Turning to the lighter week ahead, the main data release on the schedule is weekly jobless claims on Thursday. Labor market data have not painted the clearest picture recently, but the weekly jobless claims figure is a relatively reliable indicator of the health of the labor market. In recent weeks, the number of reported people receiving jobless benefits has been on the rise.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release minutes for its June policy meeting, where we may see interesting additional color on policymaker—other than Chair Powell's—views on the economy and rate outlook. With only a couple policymakers scheduled to deliver speeches this week, the minutes might get relatively more attention than usual.
Lastly, markets will continue to follow policy and geopolitical developments, which while less extreme compared to past weeks, still have the potential to impact the market outlook, particularly around the July 9th soft deadline for foreign trading partners to negotiate reciprocal tariff deals with the US.
So items to watch this week. One, jobless claims. Two, Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Three, policy and geopolitical developments.
Authors
Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403
Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964
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