Making Sense: In Brief
The week ahead for markets and the economy.
Phil: As has been the case for much of the year, last week, investors continued to digest the prospects of higher inflation and aggressive Federal Reserve, as we were reminded during chairman Powell's testimony to Congress and slowing economic growth. Looking to the week ahead, there is a lot in the calendar, so let's highlight a few market moving data points.
First, personal income and spending released on Thursday. This is a great measure of the consumer's health. Investors will want to know not only is income and spending continuing to rise in nominal terms as is expected, but also what is the consumer picture after adjusting for inflation?
Next item, we have a few important releases this week related to manufacturing. First, May's durable goods orders report released on Monday. Whether order flow is solid or weakening is an important indicator for the health of the economy. Order growth is expected to grow month over month.
Second item on the factory front, ISM manufacturing released on Friday. This survey gives a good indication not only manufacturing activity, but also prices paid, i.e., inflation and employment trends. Also on Friday, June’s vehicle sales data. With supply still tight amid a softening economy, what is happening with auto sales? Sales are expected to rebound in June following a decline in May.
Next item, April's Case-Shiller home price data released on Tuesday. With the pace of home sales slowing, but supply still tight, what is happening with home prices? Consensus expects year over year price appreciation to remain over 20%.
So, a few items to watch. One, personal income and spending; two, manufacturing data; and three, home prices.
Making Sense In Brief Outtro Slide
Brent Ciliano
CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
brent.ciliano@firstcitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart SVP, Director of Market and Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
phillip.neuhart@firstcitizens.com | 919-716-2403
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