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Market Update

Making Sense: In Brief

Phillip Neuhart, Director of Market and Economic Research, brings you a brief overview of what's coming in the week ahead for markets and the economy.

Making Sense: In Brief video

Making Sense: In Brief

The week ahead for markets and the economy

Phil: Markets were again volatile last week as investors continue to digest the prospect of an aggressive Federal Reserve in the face of elevated inflation and slowing economic growth. So let's now look to the week ahead.

The most important data point is Friday's September Nonfarm Payrolls Report. Thus far this year, the labor market has remained remarkably resilient, even as the broader economy has begun to slow. For September, job gains are expected to be around 250,000—still strong, but slower than the 381,000 average of the last 6 months. Also, the unemployment rate should hold steady at 3.7%. In the details, keep an eye on the labor force participation rate, which improved in August. Increasing the number of workers is important to provide some relief to a still-tight labor market that continues to put upward pressure on inflation. Speaking of which, wages are expected to grow 5.1% year over year, a slight decline from 5.2% in August.

And another important report, the September ISM manufacturing survey, is on Monday. This report gives investors insight into the state of manufacturing: everything from orders to shipments to employment to prices paid. The overall index is expected to moderate to 52.4—a slight decline from August, but above the important 50-break-even level, which is indicative of continued activity growth. For the services side of the economy, the ISM Services Index hits on Wednesday, and like its manufacturing sibling, it gives great insight into underlying activity in the service economy. The index is expected to moderate, but a still-healthy 56.5 level.

So, items to watch. One, the employment report. Two, ISM manufacturing. Three, ISM services.

Making Sense In Brief Outro Slide

Brent Ciliano

CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer

Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank

8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615

brent.ciliano@firstcitizens.com | 919-716-2650

Phillip Neuhart SVP, Director of Market and Economic Research

Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank

8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615

phillip.neuhart@firstcitizens.com | 919-716-2403

Disclosures

The views expressed are those of the author(s) at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. First Citizens does not assume any liability for losses that may result from the information in this piece. This is intended for general educational and informational purposes only and should not be viewed as investment advice or recommendation for a security, investment product or personal investment advice.

Your investments in securities, annuities and insurance are not insured by the FDIC or any other federal government agency and may lose value. They are not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by any bank or bank affiliate and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

First Citizens Wealth Management is a registered trademark of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. First Citizens Wealth Management products and services are offered by First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Member FDIC; First Citizens Investor Services, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC, an SEC-registered broker-dealer and investment advisor; and First Citizens Asset Management, Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor.

Brokerage and investment advisory services are offered through First Citizens Investor Services, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. First Citizens Asset Management, Inc. provides investment advisory services.

Bank deposit products are offered by First Citizens Bank, Member FDIC.

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Making Sense: A Market Update

Join Brent Ciliano, First Citizens Chief Investment Officer, and Phillip Neuhart, First Citizens Director of Market and Economic Research, as they discuss what's going on in the markets and the economy.

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First Citizens Wealth Management is a registered trademark of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. First Citizens Wealth Management products and services are offered by First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Member FDIC; First Citizens Investor Services, Inc., Member FINRA and SIPC, an SEC-registered broker-dealer and investment advisor; and First Citizens Asset Management, Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor.

Brokerage and investment advisory services are offered through First Citizens Investor Services, Inc., Member FINRA and SIPC. First Citizens Asset Management, Inc. provides investment advisory services.

Bank deposit products are offered by First Citizens Bank, Member FDIC.