Making Sense
In Brief | The week ahead for markets and the economy
Employment Data, ISM Indices and Headlines | Monday, June 30, 2025
Phil: Last week, stock and bond markets rose in tandem as geopolitical risk appeared to moderate, not to mention a fresh inflation print on Friday. Although the holiday week ahead is short, there is a lot happening on the market and economic data front.
The main event this week is the monthly employment report for June on Thursday. Forecasters are looking for a slight increase to the unemployment rate to 4.3% and about 120,000 new jobs added to nonfarm payrolls. We think the labor market is softening around the edges, with more people claiming jobless benefits and more evidence of increased layoffs cropping up. A weak jobs report could put a July Fed cut on the table, but the hurdle is high.
On Tuesday, we will get the job openings report for the month of May. We will be watching if companies reduce their demand for new workers, or if the rate of layoffs increased. And on Thursday, at the same time as the monthly jobs report, we will see weekly jobless claims figures, which have been creeping up in recent weeks.
The ISM manufacturing and services indices will be released on Tuesday and Thursday. Forecasters are looking for the manufacturing index to remain in contractionary territory, but the services index may have rebounded modestly.
Finally, throughout the week, we will be watching for the latest developments on US fiscal policy, international trade and geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.
So items to watch this week. One, employment data. Two, job openings and claims data. Three, ISM manufacturing and services indices. Four, tax, trade and geopolitical developments.
Authors
Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403
Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964
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