Making Sense: In Brief
The week ahead for markets and the economy
Phil: After another incredibly volatile week in which markets digested a few things, stronger than expected retail sales data that was juxtaposed with earnings numbers from large retailers who cited margin pressures due to costs and consumers just spending less on big ticket merchandise. With that, let's look ahead to what to watch this week.
One, durable goods orders. Those are released on Wednesday. They count for orders of everything from machinery to transportation equipment to electrical equipment. What's happening with orders matters. It's a great indication for the market of future activity and where it is headed. They are expected to rise.
Also Wednesday, the Fed's FOMC minutes from the main meeting. It's an indication of what was being said in the room at that meeting that may not have been in the statement. In terms of the path of rates and the Fed's balance sheet, all eyes in terms of investors, remains on the Fed. Very important when you think about market movements.
Next, personal income and spending. That's released on Friday. Spending and income are expected to grow but what will it look like after adjusting for inflation? Is the consumer spending in real terms? Very important. As the last week reminded us, the US consumer is critical for markets, very difficult to separate the two. How the consumer goes is how the economy goes, and that's how markets go. One thing to add relative to the consumer, is initial jobless claims. That comes out Thursdays at 8:30 in the morning and we have seen—while jobless claims are at historically low levels—we have seen a modest uptick of late. Something to watch if you're looking for a weekly data point.
So a few things for the week: one, durable goods orders; two FOMC minutes; three, consumer income and spending.
Making Sense In Brief Outtro Slide
Brent Ciliano
CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
brent.ciliano@firstcitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart SVP, Director of Market and Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
phillip.neuhart@firstcitizens.com | 919-716-2403
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