Making Sense
In Brief | The week ahead for markets and the economy
Housing Data | Trade Policy Developments | Q2 Earnings Season | Monday, July 21, 2025
Blake: Last week, temperate inflation data reassured markets about any immediate economic impact of tariffs, but we still think eventual tariff impacts will take time to show up, and we do see elevated policy uncertainty still as a risk for market volatility.
Turning to the week ahead, on the economic data front, market attention will be directed toward the housing market. Interest rates and mortgage rates are still elevated, and that's definitely having an effect on home construction, home sales and just general housing sentiment.
Coming off Friday's decent housing starts number for June, on Wednesday forecasters are now looking for a small drop in the number of existing home sales sold in June, and then on Thursday for a moderate rebound in new home sales—but that's after a big drop in May. Any significant undershoot in these numbers might add a new layer of concern to this pocket of the economy.
There's been a fair amount of noise on the Federal Reserve recently, raising new questions about rate cuts and monetary policy. But despite this, as the Federal Reserve goes into its pre-meeting communication blackout period, markets are still expecting just one or two rate cuts by the end of the year.
On the other hand, trade policy news will be up in the air this week. This is the last full week before the White House's self-imposed August 1st deadline to reach trade and tariff deals with other countries.
Lastly, second quarter earnings season will ramp up this week. So far, about 10% of S&P 500 companies have reported, and the vast majority of those have beat expectations. But in these reports, we're looking not just to the numbers, also to management commentary about how uncertainty around costs and new policies are affecting their business and profit outlooks.
So things to watch this week. One, housing data. Two, trade policy developments. And third, second quarter earnings releases.
Authors
Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403
Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964
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