Market Outlook · February 28, 2022

Consider History: Market Performance During Geopolitical Events

Brent Ciliano

CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer

Phillip Neuhart

SVP, Manager of Institutional Portfolio Strategy

Following the February 23 market update, Russia launched attacks on Ukraine, and markets responded upon opening on February 24. Considering this material development, we'll continue to bring you reliable information as you make financial decisions.

Market Performance

Looking at 12 major conflicts post 1940, the S&P 500 has been positive on average 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-months post event.

Corporate Earnings

Looking at notable geopolitical and macro events historically, it's no secret that equity markets can be quite reactive as investors work to quickly digest the potential headwinds. But we have some thoughts.

Where do markets go from here?

We believe the full market cycle can last through year-end 2023 and potentially reach 5,500 greater (EPS of $267 at around 20.5x), but much can and will change along the way.

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