Market Outlook · November 02, 2021

Making Sense: November Outlook

Brent Ciliano

CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer


Looking to year-end, will market performance sustain? The stats suggest it might.

I've been getting a lot of questions over the last 2 weeks around market performance into year-end, especially given both September's 5% sell-off in the S&P 500 and October's corresponding recovery.

The table below (data from Ned Davis Research highlights) shows that post 1925—when the S&P 500 had risen 20% or greater year-to-date through October— the subsequent additional gains though year-end were a median +6% and had a positive outcome 88% of the time. Out of the 16 previous occurrences to 2021, the only 2 negative years saw a very modest -0.2% and -2% drawdown in the remaining 2 months. You'd have to go all the way back to 1943 to see the last time that happened.

Year

% Gain YTD to 10/31

% Gain 10/31 to 12/31

1927

20.3

8.8

1928

22.8

12.3

1933

30

12.7

1935

31.2

7.8

1936

28.2

-0.2

1938

24.8

0.3

1943

22

-2.1

1945

25.4

4.3

1954

27.7

13.6

1958

28.4

7.6

1975

29.9

1.3

1989

22.6

3.8

1995

26.6

5.9

1997

23.5

6.1

2012

23.2

5.2

2019

21.2

6.4

If history were to repeat, we would more than eclipse my 2021 year-end price target for the S&P 500 of 4,700 that Phil Neuhart and I covered on last month's Making Sense webinar. While we all know that history certainly doesn’t always repeat, at least the data has been encouraging.

Metrics

% Gain 10/31 to 12/31

Median

6.0

% Positive

87.5

All Years Median

3.4

All Years % Positive

71.5

This information is provided for educational purposes only and should not be relied on or interpreted as accounting, financial planning, investment, legal or tax advice. First Citizens Bank (or its affiliates) neither endorses nor guarantees this information, and encourages you to consult a professional for advice applicable to your specific situation.

Links to third-party websites may have a privacy policy different from First Citizens Bank and may provide less security than this website. First Citizens Bank and its affiliates are not responsible for the products, services and content on any third-party website.

Your investments in securities, annuities and insurance are not insured by the FDIC or any other federal government agency and may lose value. They are not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by any bank or bank affiliate and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

First Citizens Wealth Management is a registered trademark of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. First Citizens Wealth Management products and services are offered by First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Member FDIC; First Citizens Investor Services, Inc., Member FINRA and SIPC, an SEC-registered broker-dealer and investment advisor; and First Citizens Asset Management, Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor.

Brokerage and investment advisory services are offered through First Citizens Investor Services, Inc., Member FINRA and SIPC. First Citizens Asset Management, Inc. provides investment advisory services.

Bank deposit products are offered by First Citizens Bank, Member FDIC.