Market Outlook · August 24, 2020

Market Bounce—2020 Style: Fastest Market Recovery Ever

Brent Ciliano

CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer

1 The speed of volatility—fastest recovery ever for a 30% or greater sell off!

It took just 103 trading days to erase the S&P 500's 34% decline, marking the fastest recovery to a new high following a decline of 30% or worse in history.

2 New market highs during an NBER defined recession—historically a leading indicator?

August 18th marked only the 5th time in history the S&P 500 made a new all-time high while during an NBER-defined economic recession. In the prior 4 historical examples (1961, 1980, 1982 and 1991), the recession's end followed within the next month.

3 New #1 question from clients—"Is this a new bull market, or still a bear market rally?"

100% of all bear markets after WWII experienced a re-test. 10 out of 11 experienced a re-test that exceeded their initial low. The smallest historical re-test was -7.8%, the average was -20.1%.

This information is provided for educational purposes only and should not be relied on or interpreted as accounting, financial planning, investment, legal or tax advice. First Citizens Bank (or its affiliates) neither endorses nor guarantees this information, and encourages you to consult a professional for advice applicable to your specific situation.

Links to third-party websites may have a privacy policy different from First Citizens Bank and may provide less security than this website. First Citizens Bank and its affiliates are not responsible for the products, services and content on any third-party website.

Your investments in securities, annuities and insurance are not insured by the FDIC or any other federal government agency and may lose value. They are not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by any bank or bank affiliate and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

First Citizens Wealth Management is a registered trademark of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. First Citizens Wealth Management products and services are offered by First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Member FDIC; First Citizens Investor Services, Inc., Member FINRA and SIPC, an SEC-registered broker-dealer and investment advisor; and First Citizens Asset Management, Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor.

Brokerage and investment advisory services are offered through First Citizens Investor Services, Inc., Member FINRA and SIPC. First Citizens Asset Management, Inc. provides investment advisory services.

Bank deposit products are offered by First Citizens Bank, Member FDIC.