Market Outlook · August 24, 2020

Market Bounce—2020 Style: Fastest Market Recovery Ever

Brent Ciliano

CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer

1 The speed of volatility—fastest recovery ever for a 30% or greater sell off!

It took just 103 trading days to erase the S&P 500's 34% decline, marking the fastest recovery to a new high following a decline of 30% or worse in history.

2 New market highs during an NBER defined recession—historically a leading indicator?

August 18th marked only the 5th time in history the S&P 500 made a new all-time high while during an NBER-defined economic recession. In the prior 4 historical examples (1961, 1980, 1982 and 1991), the recession's end followed within the next month.

3 New #1 question from clients—"Is this a new bull market, or still a bear market rally?"

100% of all bear markets after WWII experienced a re-test. 10 out of 11 experienced a re-test that exceeded their initial low. The smallest historical re-test was -7.8%, the average was -20.1%.

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