Market Outlook · July 22, 2020

How Balanced is the Market, Really?

Brent Ciliano

CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer

1 Is this a balanced market?

Year to date through July 17th, the top 5 names in the S&P 500 have a cumulative return of 32.2%, while the broad S&P 500 index has posted a meager +.9%.

2 What does the next stimulus package look like? When might we see it?

Trying to estimate the stimulus at this point is a bit of a moving target, but I get the final price tag will likely drift higher than most were previously estimating.

3 Potential market risks from a democratic sweep

We could see the largest proposed tax increase in the first year of a presidency since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. I believe this potential outcome hasn't been priced into markets or analysts 2021 S&P 500 corporate earnings projections.

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