Market Outlook · June 08, 2020

As Goes the First Day of the Month, As Goes the Entire Month

Brent Ciliano

CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer

1 The performance on the first day of a given month has portended the entire month’s performance

I’ve written quite a bit about the bizarre equity market price action in recent months, and while the first trading day of June saw a rally, even after the grim weekend of protests worldwide, the magnitude of the S&P 500’s performance was a pretty modest +0.38% for the first trading day of the month.

2 The S&P 500 sets two new records, and the NASDAQ erases its losses for the year

This bear market rally, or “bounce,” can now claim two records-largest bear market rally in 80 years and fastest 50-day advance for the S&P 500 since the Great Depression.

3 May jobs report – How could economists get it so wrong?

After 42.6 million workers applied for initial unemployment claims over the last 11 weeks ending May 30th, and with 21.5 million Americans receiving continuing unemployment insurance, it might be easy to see how economists would be expecting the total jobs number for May to be a bad one.

4 What are small businesses thinking, and what are their expectations?

In their May 30th survey, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) highlighted the top 10 concerns for small business owners once their respective states re-open for business.

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