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Six for 2016 Check-In

Investment Commentary

Brent Ciliano, CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer April 22, 2016

Six for '16 Check-In

Recently the Federal Reserve ("The Fed") released a Summary of Economic Projections from its March meeting. This summary includes updates to data on interest rates, inflation, growth and unemployment. Below is a summary of The Fed’s updates and revisions that relate to our forecasts that we discussed in our February 23, 2016 Outlook entitled "Six for '16."

U.S. Growth (Real GDP)

Note that The Fed’s reduction gets us halfway to our estimate of 2% real growth in the U.S. for 2016. Given the recent velocity and magnitude of recent not-so-good U.S. economic data (think retail sales, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing/non-manufacturing index, still decelerating corporate profitability and the revision of 2017 real growth) we believe The Fed will reduce this estimate further, ultimately settling at or around 2% for full-year 2016.

Interest Rates

Inflation


References

1IMF estimate, World Economic Update, January 19, 2016.

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